Fewer Returns, Bigger Refunds: The 2026 Filing Season in Numbers
The average refund ran roughly 11% ahead of last year and total refunds passed $265 billion by mid-April, even as the IRS received about 3 million fewer returns than at the same point in 2025.
The filing season that closed this week produced an unusual combination: fewer returns, larger refunds and a Treasury paying out substantially more money than it did a year ago.
By early April, the IRS had refunded $241.7 billion, against $211.1 billion at the same point in 2025. By mid-April the total had risen to roughly $265.2 billion, an increase of about 16%. The average refund reached $3,676 by early March, up 10.6% from $3,324 a year earlier.
Why refunds grew
The explanation is the tax law enacted in mid-2025, whose provisions applied retroactively to the whole of that tax year. Withholding tables had been set before the changes; taxpayers therefore had too much withheld across the year and received the difference as a refund.
New deductions for tip and overtime income, an expanded deduction for older taxpayers, and a much higher cap on the deduction for state and local taxes all pushed in the same direction.
Why returns fell
The IRS received about 114.3 million individual returns by early April, down 2.8% from 117.6 million at the same point last year. Some of that gap reflects timing — extensions and late filing shift volume into the summer. Some of it reflects taxpayers who did not file at all.
Nearly 70% of returns filed this season generated a refund, which is a higher share than in recent years and a direct consequence of the withholding mismatch.
The service question
The season was the first major test of an agency that has lost more than a quarter of its workforce in roughly a year. IRS leadership said processing goals were met.
Practitioners describe a more uneven experience: electronic filing and straightforward refunds worked well, while anything requiring human review — amended returns, identity verification, correspondence audits — took considerably longer than in past years.
What it means for next year
Refunds of this size are a one-time artifact. Withholding tables have now caught up with the law, which means the same taxpayer with the same income will see a smaller refund next spring even though the tax owed is identical.
Explaining that distinction is likely to be the tax profession's main communication task in early 2027.
